CT Scans Performed in 1 Year Could Account for 5 Percent of All Future Cancers

Background: The use of CT is firmly embedded in medical practice and has increased 40-fold since the 1980s. Ionizing radiation in CT scans is a known carcinogen. Previous studies have estimated cancer cases due to CT scans, but as use increases, so do future cancer cases attributable to CT. Objective: To estimate the projected number of future cancer cases from CT scans performed in the United States (U.S.) in 2023. Design/Methods: The authors developed a risk model from a multicenter sample of CT examinations from the University of California San Francisco International CT Dose Registry between January 2018 and December 2020. The CT data collected were then scaled to the U.S. population in 2023, and projected future cancer cases were calculated. Results: >61 million patients underwent 93 million CT scans in 2023. Of these patients, approximately 96% were adults and 53% were female. A total of 103,000 future cancers were predicted from CT scans using current dosing utilization in more...